#news and #comments #digest (@robertolofaro) for 2015-01-13


the #Paris #terrorist – not #cyber http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2015/01/12/paris-bruxelles-toulouse-la-radicalisation-des-terroristes-n-a-pas-eu-lieu-sur-le-web_4554384_4408996.html #inspiration http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/pariser-attentaeter-hatten-idole-von-al-quaida-und-is-13366323.html #security #politics

#Charliehebdo and #communication #choices – #AlJazira http://bigbrowser.blog.lemonde.fr/2015/01/13/au-sein-de-la-redaction-dal-jazira-charlie-a-fait-debat/ and #next #issue http://www.faz.net/aktuell/naechstes-charlie-hebdo-heft-alles-ist-vergeben-13366829.html #politics #media

toward a #European #Patriot #Act ? http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/01/12/actualidad/1421099070_930165.html #what #for ? http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2015/01/12/le-patriot-act-une-legislation-d-exception-au-bilan-tres-mitige_4554570_4355770.html #security #politics

#Belgium – #risks of #extremists http://kommersant.ru/doc/2644833 #security #politics

#cyber #jihad http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/01/12/actualidad/1421085999_653050.html and #risks of #counter #terrorism http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/medien/edward-snowden-enthuellt-wie-die-nsa-das-internet-zur-waffe-macht-13364390.html #security #politics #ethics

why changing would mean surrendering to terrorists http://www.lavie.fr/debats/edito/pourquoi-il-ne-faut-rien-changer-12-01-2015-59301_429.php #politics #EU #Franklyn

#EU – public contributions to the #Juncker plan will be counted but not in excessive deficit http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2015/01/12/actualidad/1421094947_429389.html #economy #politics

#Syria – #peace #initiative from #Russia http://kommersant.ru/doc/2644836 #security #diplomacy

#Spain – half of the public debt in foreign hands http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2015/01/12/actualidad/1421092440_081585.html #economy #EU

#oil #prices #forecasts – around 50 USD / barrel across 2015 http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2015/01/12/actualidad/1421093040_357783.html #Maduro http://kommersant.ru/doc/2644773 #energy #politics #diplomacy

#Mexico – #renewable #energy investment plan for 14 USD bln – #Iberdrola 9 USD bln http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2015/01/13/actualidad/1421125844_752954.html #politics #diplomacy

#Huawei third on #smartphones after #Apple and #Samsung http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/chinas-telekom-riese-huawei-waechst-um-20-prozent-13367067.html #telecom #electronics #business

#FCA plans in the first year after #FIAT and #Chrysler http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/fruehaufsteher/marchionne-hat-keine-angst-vor-uber-13367011.html #automotive #business #Uber

#Lapalisse meets academia – you are what you #like http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/12/ciencia/1421084469_835718.html #network #analysis #social #profiling

1. 8 skills to look for in IT Project Managers

it is a little bit “Cicero pro domo sua”, but I agree with the article on skills that IT Project Managers should have now


2. a friend asked on Linkedin: “Perhaps some may have some ideas on this. But something has been bugging me about the attacks in France.”

and added: “The Hebdo attackers claim affiliation with Al Qaeda and Coulibaly/Boumeddiene claimed affiliation with ISIS. This seems very ‘off’ to me. These two groups are competing against each other. Al Qaeda split from ISIS and wants nothing to do with them, is this a shift? Is it a small group deciding they can be more effective if they work together? Or is it something else?”

my comments:
it might also be just the perps claiming affiliation- if you look at their personal stories of in/out jail lives as published on French newspapers, they seem the perfect candidates for self-promotion by claiming affiliation

and Al Qaeda in the past was acting more as a “brand” than an organization, while ISIS is struggling to become an attractor and the leading entity (Boko Haram and other are more “joining” that being an expression of either)

as for the attacks themselves- frankly, they were more against the Muslim community, to coherce a reaction from non-Muslim and avoid any potential convergence of interest again extremists

luckily, the “split” of Le Pen produced scarcily attended events, while expanded the convergence; a good sign is the attendance of leading political figures from both Israel and Palestine

(some more comments from others in between)

more a convergence of interests also if uncoordinated activities, with grassroot recruitment that looks for a “brand” to attach to, as those aspiring to be part of something larger can build their own “lone wolf cell” simply by accessing material provided online, turning themselves into evangelists, and then present their own improvised actions as part of a greater plan (I agree: going to the wrong address at first isn’t really a sign of something planned and structured, as in Paris almost every corner has a street sign clearly marking where you are)

a kind of “franchising” approach- as Bowden, Burke, Rees wrote in their books, beside training fields or funding (initially courtesy of our Western interest in giving USSR its own Vietnam in Afghanistan), what Al Qaeda etc. provided to wannabes was “how to” information and a sense of belonging to a “greater purpose”

it is now almost forgotten in Europe, but when we had the 1970s etc. season of terrorism, often for each terrorist attack there were more pretending to have been the source of the attack

personally, as I come from an organizational development perspective, not a security forces background, I see Al Qaeda as a virtual organization, with ISIS as a “competitor” learning on its predecessors (not just A-Q) lessons, inheriting the “audience” but using the opportunity left by the failed states of Syria and Iraq to turn a concept into a state; if you want, the initial role model was probably Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt, before trying to turn (unsuccessfully) to traditional politics

and its failure (along with its siblings in other countries during the “Arab Spring”) to achieve what some parties are trying to achieve in Turkey via political activities might also be a reason of the initial shifting of support to ISIS, as in other locations groups shifted allegiance from A-Q to ISIS, from what was reported in 2014 by newspapers around the world (usually both Xinhua and Kommersant provide information before other mainstream newspapers do)

many now report that ISIS is starting to be and act as a real state- but, when they start listing what constitutes this “real” state, they often list nothing more than what are already traditional elements of Islamic societies (from schools to a welfare system), plus the structuring of a standing army.

albeit the main weakness of ISIS, in its path to becoming an ordinary state, is its own “permanent revolution” approach: an “ordinary state”, even North Korea, has exchanges with others, while the current approach is creating a “coalition of the unwilling to cooperate”

it might well be that the current ISIS leadership, if the state stabilizes and “surgical” operations continue, will go the way that Trotsky had to go

unless, of course, it implodes before that


Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s